"1997 оны Азийн санхүүгийн хямрал"-ны өөр хувилбарууд

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Зүүн Азийн Санхүүгийн Хямрал нь 1997 оны 7-р сард Тайланд улсад Тай батын ханшийн уналтаар эхлэн, Азийн олон орны [[мөнгөн тэмтэгт]], [[хувьцааны зах зээл]] болон бусад хөрөнгийн үнэ ханшид нөлөөлсөн санхүүгийн үймээн буюу [[санхүүгийн халдвар]]ын үе байсан юм. Үүнийг мөн "Зүүн азийн валютын хямрал" болон ОУВС-ын хямрал ч гэж нэрийдэх нь бий. Энэ хямралын илрэл болон түүний үр дагавар илт харагдаж байгаа ч гэсэн, хямралын шалтгаан, хүрээ болон шийдэх арга нь тодорхойгүй хэвээр үлджээ. [[Индонези]], [[Өмнөд Солонгос]] болон [[Тайланд]] нь тус хямралд хамгийн их нэрвэгдсэн орнууд бөгөөд [[Хонгконг]], [[Малайз]], [[Лаос]] болон [[Филиппини]] зэрэг улсууд тус уналтад мөн нэрвэгдсэн. [[Эх газрын хятад]], [[Энэтхэг]], [[Тайван]], [[Сингапур]] болон [[Вьетнам]] зэрэг улсуудад харьцангуй нөлөө үзүүлээгүй. [[Япон]] энэ хямралд их автаагүй ч гэсэн, өөрийн урт хугацааны эдийн засгийн хүнд байдалд орсон байлаа. Гэхдээ, дээр дурьдсан бүх улсуудын [[ам.доллар]]-тай харьцуулах валютын ханш унасан.
 
==Хонгконг==
1997 оны 7-р сарын 2-ны Тай батын ханшийн уналт нь [[Нэгдсэн Вант Улс]]ыг Хонгконгийн эрх мэдлийг Хятадад шилжүүлсэнээс хойш 24 цагийн дараа гарч эхэлсэн. 1997 оны 10-р сард ам.доллартай харьцах ханшийг 7.8-д барьж байсан хонгконг доллар тухайн үеийн АНУ-ын инфляцийн түвшинээс хонгконгийнх даруй их болсоноос хамааран хэт дарамтанд орсон. Валютын удирдлагууд өөрийн валютаа хамгаалахын тулд 1 тэрбум гаруй ам.долларыг зарцуулсан. Хонгконг [[Мөнгөний нийлүүлэлт#хүрээ|M1]] мөнгөний нийлүүлэтийнхээ 700%-тай тэнцэх, [[Мөнгөний нийлүүлэлт#хүрээ|M3]] мөнгөний нийлүүлэтийнхээ 45%-тай тэнцэхүйц 80 гаруй тэрбум ам.долларын гадаад нөөцтэй байсан учир, [[Хонгконг]] эрсдэл учруулах дайралтаас үл хамааран, ам.доллартай харьцах валютын ханшийг тогтворжуулж эхэлсэн. Хувьцааны зах зээл ихээхэн хэлбэлзэлтэй болсон бөгөөд 10-р сарын 20-оос 23-ны хооронд [[Ханг Сенг индекс(Hang Seng)]] 23%-иар буурсан. Хонгконгийн валютын удирдлага валютаа хамгаална хэмээн амласан. 1998-оны 8-р сарын 15-нд Хонгконг нэг шөнийн дотор зээлийн хүүгээ 8%-иас 23% хүртэлд өсгөн, нэг пунктээр 500% хүртэл өсгөсөн.
 
Stock markets become more and more volatile; between [[20 October]] and [[23 October]] the [[Hang Seng Index]] dipped by 23%. [[Hong Kong Monetary Authority]] promised to protect the currency. On [[15 August]] [[1998]], Hong Kong raised rates overnight from 8% to 23% and at one point, to 500%. While the Monetary Authority recognized that the speculative forces were taking advantage of the unique currency board system, in which the overnight rates would automatically increase proportionally when the currency is sold in the market heavily, which would in turn increase the downward pressure of the stock market and thus allowing the speculators to earn a large profit by [[short selling]] shares, the Monetary Authority started buying component shares of the Hang Seng Index in mid-August. The Monetary Authority and [[Donald Tsang]], then Financial Secretary, declared war with speculators openly. The Government ended up buying approximately HK$120 billion (about US$15 billion) of shares of various companies, and becoming the largest shareholder of some of the companies (e.g. the government owned 10% of [[HSBC]]) at the end of August when hostilities ended with the closing of the August contract of Hang Seng Index Futures. The Government started to divest itself from the position in 2001 and made a profit of about HK$30 billion (about US$4 billion) in the process. Speculative actions against the Hong Kong Dollar and the stock market did not continue into September largely due to extraordinary reaction to speculators by the Malaysian authorities and the onset of the collapse of Russian bond and currency market, which caused massive loss to the speculators. The currency peg between the Hong Kong Dollar and the US Dollar at 7.8:1 continued to exist undeterred.
 
==Өмнөд Солонгос==
==Малайз==
Хямралаас өмнөх [[Малайз]] нь [[Дотоодын нийт бүтээгдэхүүн|ДНБ]]-ны 5%-д хүрэх их хэмжээний урсгал дансны алдагдалтай байсан юм. Тухайн үед Малайз нь тэргүүлэх хөрөнгө оруулалт хийсэн орон байсан бөгөөд энэ нь дэлхийн хамгийн идэвхитэй бирж болох [[KLSE]]-ын үйл ажиллагаанд туссан.
 
had a large current account deficit of 5% of [[Gross domestic product|GDP]]. At the time, Malaysia was a top investment destination, and this was reflected in [[KLSE]] activity which was regularly the most active exchange in the world. (with turnover exceeding even markets with far higher capitalisation like the [[NYSE]]) . Expectations at the time were that the growth rate would continue, propelling Malaysia into developed status by 2020, a government policy articulated in [[Wawasan 2020]]. As at start of 1997, the KLSE [[Composite]] [[index (economics)|index]] was above 1,200, the ringgit was trading above 2.50 to the dollar, and the overnight rate was below 7%.
 
In July, within days of the [[Thai baht]] devaluation, the Malaysian [[ringgit]] was "attacked" by [[speculation|speculators]]. The overnight rate jumped from under 8% to over 40%. This led to rating downgrades and a general sell off on the stock and currency markets. By end 1997, ratings had fallen many notches from investment grade to [[junk]], the KLSE had lost more than 50% from above 1,200 to under 600, and the ringgit had lost 50% of its value, falling from above 2.50 to under 3.80 to the dollar.
 
In 1998, the output of the real economy declined plunging the country into its first [[recession]] for many years. The construction sector contracted 23.5%, manufacturing shrunk 9% and the agriculture sector 5.9%. Overall, the country's gross domestic product plunged 6.2% in 1998. During that year, the ringgit plunged below 4.7 and the KLSE fell below 270 points. In September that year, various defensive measures were announced to overcome the crisis.
 
The principal measure taken were to move the ringgit from a free float to a fixed exchange rate regime. [[Bank Negara]] fixed the ringgit at 3.8 to the dollar. Capital controls were imposed while aid offer from the IMF was refused. Various agencies were formed. The Corporate Debt Restructuring Committee dealt with corporate loans. [[Danaharta]] discounted and bought bad loans from banks to facilitate orderly asset realization. [[Danamodal]] recapitalised banks.
 
Growth then settled at a slower but more sustainable pace. The massive current account deficit became a fairly substantial surplus. Banks were better capitalised and NPLs were realised in an orderly way. Small banks were bought out by strong ones. (Unfortunately, this was an excuse for the government-linked banks, which were actually in a weak financial position to force the smaller banks out of the market. Ironically, it was the smaller banks, managed in a sound financial manner, that were dissolved, instead of the larger politically-favored banks) A large number of PLCs were unable to regularise their financial affairs and were delisted. Compared to the 1997 current account, by 2005, Malaysia is estimated to have USD14.06 billion surplus.[https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/my.html] Asset values however, have not returned to their pre-crisis highs. In 2005 the last of the crisis measures was removed as the ringgit was taken off the fixed exchange system. But unlike pre-crisis days, it does not appear to be a free float, but a managed float, like the Singapore dollar.
 
==Индонез==
:''Гол өгүүллэг: [[Индонез]]''
 
In June 1997, [[Indonesia]] seemed far from crisis. Unlike Thailand, Indonesia had low inflation, a trade surplus of more than $900 million, huge foreign exchange reserves of more than $20 billion, and a good banking sector. But a large number of Indonesian corporations had been borrowing in U.S. dollars. During preceding years, as the [[rupiah]] had strengthened respective to the dollar, this practice had worked well for those corporations; their effective levels of debt and financing costs had decreased as the local currency's value rose.
 
In July, when Thailand floated the baht, Indonesia's monetary authorities widened the rupiah trading band from 8% to 12%. The rupiah came under severe attack in August. On [[14 August]] [[1997]], the managed floating exchange regime was replaced by a free-floating exchange rate arrangement. The rupiah dropped further. The IMF came forward with a rescue package of $23 billion, but the rupiah was sinking further amid fears over corporate debts, massive selling of rupiah, strong demand for dollars. The rupiah and Jakarta Stock Exchange touched a new historic low in September. Moody's eventually downgraded Indonesia's long-term debt to junk bond.
 
Although the rupiah crisis began in July and August, it intensified in November when the effects of that summer devaluation showed up on corporate balance sheets. Companies that had borrowed in dollars had to face the higher costs imposed upon them by the rupiah's decline, and many reacted by buying dollars, i.e. selling rupiah, undermining the value of the latter further. The inflation of the rupiah and the resulting steep hikes in the prices of food staples led to [[Jakarta riots of May 1998|riots]] throughout the country in which more than 500 people died alone in [[Jakarta]]. In February 1998, President [[Suharto]] sacked the governor of Bank Indonesia, but this proved insufficient. Suharto was forced to resign in mid-1998 and [[B. J. Habibie]] became President. Before the crisis, the exchange rate between the [[rupiah]] and the dollar was roughly 2000 rupiah to 1 USD. The rate had plunged to over 18000 rupiah to 1 USD at times during the crisis. Indonesia lost 13.5% of its GDP that year.
 
==Сингапур==
The [[economy of Singapore]] dipped into a short recession almost purely as a result of [[financial contagion]]. The relatively short duration and milder effects can be credited to active management by the government. For example, the [[Monetary Authority of Singapore]] allowed for a gradual 20% depreciation of the [[Singapore dollar]] to cushion and guide the economy to a soft landing. The timing of government programmes such as the [[Interim Upgrading Program]] and other construction related projects were brought forward. Instead of allowing the labour markets to work, the [[National Wage Council]] pre-emptively agreed to [[Central Provident Fund]] cuts to lower labor costs, with limited impact on disposable income and local demand. Unlike in [[Hong Kong]], no attempt was made to directly intervene in the capital markets and the [[Straits Times Index]] was allowed to drop 60%. In less than a year, the Singapore economy recovered and continued on its growth trajectory.
 
==Хятад==
Хятадын валют, [[юан(renminbi)]] (RMB),-ыг 1994 онд доллартай харьцах юаны ханш 8.3-аар тогтвортой барьж байсан.
The Chinese currency, [[renminbi]] (RMB), had been pegged to the US dollar at a ratio of 8.3 RMB to the dollar, in 1994. Throughout 1998 there was heavy speculation in the [[Western world|Western]] [[news|press]] that China would soon be forced to devalue its currency to protect the competitiveness of Chinese exports vis-a-vis those of [[ASEAN]] nations, whose exports became cheaper relative to China's. However, the RMB's non-convertibility protected its value from currency speculators, and the decision was made to maintain the peg of the currency, improving the country's standing within Asia. The currency peg was partly scrapped in July 2005 rising 2.3 % against the dollar, reflecting pressure from the United States.
 
Unlike investments of many of the Southeast Asian nations, almost all of its foreign investment took the form of factories on the ground rather than securities, which insulated the country from rapid [[capital flight]]. While the PRC was relatively unaffected by the crisis compared to Southeast Asia and Korea, GDP growth slowed sharply in 1998 and 1999, calling attention to structural problems with the PRC economy. In particular, the Asian financial crisis convinced the Chinese government of the need to resolve the issue of non-performing loans within the banking system.
 
==Америкийн Нэгдсэн Улс ба Япон==
"Азийн ханиад" [[Америкийн Нэгдсэн Улс]] болон [[Япон]]д дарамт учруулах болсон. Тэдний эдийн засаг хямралд өртөөгүй ч гэсэн, хүчтэй цохилт амссан.
 
The "Asian flu" also put pressure on the [[United States]] and [[Japan]]. Their economies did not collapse, but they were severely hit. On [[27 October]] [[1997]], the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average|Dow Jones]] industrial plunged 554-points, or 7.2%, amid ongoing worries about the Asian economies. The [[New York Stock Exchange]] briefly suspended trading. The crisis led to a drop in [[consumer confidence|consumer]] and spending [[confidence]] (see [[October 27]], [[1997]] [[October 27, 1997 mini-crash|mini-crash]]). [[Japan]] was affected because its economy is prominent in the region. Asian countries usually run a [[trade deficit]] with Japan because the latter's economy was more than twice the size of the rest of Asia together. The Japanese yen fell to 147 as mass selling began, but Japan was the world's largest holder of currency reserves at the time, so it was easily defended, and quickly bounced back. About 40% of Japan's exports go to Asia. GDP real growth rate slowed dramatically in 1997, from 5% to 1.6% and even sank into recession in 1998, due to intense competition from cheapened rivals. The Asian financial crisis also led to more bankruptcies in Japan. In addition, with South Korea's devalued currency, and China's steady gains, many companies complained outright they could not compete.
 
==Цааш ньМөн үзэх==
==Үр дагавар==
*[[Эдийн засаг]]
===Ази===
The crisis had significant macro-level effects, including sharp reductions in values of currencies, stock markets, and other asset prices of several Asian countries. Many businesses collapsed, and as a consequence, millions of people fell below the poverty line in 1997-1998. Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand were the countries most affected by the crisis.
 
The economic crisis also led to political upheaval, most notably culminating in the resignations of [[Suharto]] in Indonesia and [[Chavalit Yongchaiyudh]] in Thailand. There was a general rise in anti-Western sentiment, with [[George Soros]] and the [[International Monetary Fund]] in particular singled out as targets of criticisms. Heavy US investment in Thailand ended, replaced by mostly European investment, though Japanese investment continued{{Fact|article|date=March 2007}}. Islamic and separatist movements intensified in [[Indonesia]] as the central authority weakened.
 
More long-term consequences include reversal of the relative gains made in the boom years just preceding the crisis. For example, the [[CIA World Factbook]] reports that the per capita income (measured by [[purchasing power parity]]) in Thailand declined from $8,800 to $8,300 between 1997 and 2005; in Indonesia it declined from $4,600 to $3,700; in Malaysia it declined from $11,100 to $10,400. Over the same period, world per capita income rose from $6,500 to $9,300 [http://www.umsl.edu/services/govdocs/wofact98/4.htm], [https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/]. Indeed, the CIA's analysis suggests the [[economy of Indonesia]] was still smaller in 2005 than it had been in 1997, suggesting an impact on that country similar to the [[Great Depression]]. Within East Asia, the bulk of investment and a significant amount of economic weight shifted from [[Japan]] and [[ASEAN]] to [[China]].
 
The crisis has been intensively analyzed by economists for its breadth, speed, and dynamism; it affected dozens of countries, had a direct impact on the livelihood of millions, happened within the course of a mere few months, and at each stage of the crisis leading economists, in particular the international institutions, seemed a step behind. Perhaps more interesting to economists is the speed with which it ended, leaving most of the developed economies unharmed. These curiosities have prompted an explosion of literature about [[financial economics]] and a litany of explanations why the crisis occurred. A number of critiques have been leveled against the conduct of the [[International Monetary Fund]] in the crisis, including one by former [[World Bank]] economist [[Joseph Stiglitz]]. Politically there were some benefits. In several countries, particularly [[South Korea]] and [[Indonesia]], there was renewed push for [[corporate governance]]. Rampaging inflation weakened the authority of the [[Suharto]] regime and lead to its toppling in 1998, accelerating [[East Timor]]'s independence.
 
===Азийн гадаад байдал===
After the Asian crisis, international investors were reluctant to lend to developing countries, leading to economic slowdowns in developing countries in many parts of the world. The powerful negative shock also sharply reduced the price of oil, which reached a low of $8/barrel towards the end of 1998, causing a financial pinch in [[OPEC]] nations and other oil exporters. Such sharply reduced oil revenue in turn contributed to the [[Russian financial crisis]] in 1998. Which in turn caused [[Long-Term Capital Management]] in the United States to collapse, after losing $4.6 billion in 4 months. A wider collapse in the financial markets was avoided when [[Alan Greenspan]] and the [[Federal Reserve Bank of New York]] organized a $3.625 billion bail-out. Major emerging economies Brazil and [[Argentina]] also fell into crisis in the late 1990s (see [[Argentine economic crisis|Argentine debt crisis]]).
 
The crisis in general was part of a global backlash against the [[Washington Consensus]] and institutions such as the [[IMF]] and [[World Bank]]{{Fact|article|date=March 2007}}, which simultaneously became unpopular in developed countries following the rise of the [[anti-globalization movement]] in 1999. Four major rounds of world trade talks since the crisis, in [[Seattle]], [[Doha]], [[Cancún]], and [[Hong Kong]], have failed to produce a significant agreement as developing countries have become more assertive, and nations are increasingly turning toward regional or bilateral [[FTA]]s (Free Trade Agreement) as an alternative to global institutions{{Fact|article|date=March 2007}}. Many nations learned from this, and quickly built up foreign exchange reserves as a hedge against attacks, including Japan, China, South Korea. Pan Asian currency swaps were introduced in the event of another crisis. However, interestingly enough, such nations as Brazil, Russia, and India as well as most of East Asia began copying the Japanese model of weakening their currencies, restructuring their economies so as to create a [[current account]] surplus to build large [[foreign currency reserves]]{{Fact|article|date=March 2007}}. This has led to ever increasing funding for US treasury bonds, allowing or aiding housing (2001-2005) and stock asset bubbles (1996-2000) to develop in the United States.
 
==Цааш нь үзэх==
*[[Economics]]
*[[Economy of Hong Kong]]
*[[Economy of Indonesia]]
*[[Economy of Malaysia]]
*[[Economy of the People's Republic of China]]
*[[Economy of the Philippines]]
*[[Economy of Singapore]]
*[[Economy of South Korea]]
*[[Economy of Taiwan]]
*[[Economy of Thailand]]
*[[List of finance topics]]
 
==Ишлэл==
*Kilgour, Andrea, (1999) ''The changing economic situation in Vietnam: A product of the Asian crisis?'' ([http://www.geogr.uni-goettingen.de/kus/apsa/pn/pn12/vietnam.html Link])
 
==Цааш нь унших==
*[http://www.jstor.org/view/00072303/di009478/00p0029t/0/ The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects], S. Radelet, J.D. Sachs, R.N. Cooper, B.P. Bosworth - Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1998.
*[http://wbro.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/11/2/151/ Some Lessons From The East Asian Miracle], [[Joseph Stiglitz]], The World Bank Research Observer, 1996.
*[http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/asia_crisis_2007_08.pdf Ten Years After: The Lasting Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis], [[Mark Weisbrot]], [[Center for Economic and Policy Research]], August 2007.
 
{{Хувьцааны[[Category:Хөрөнгийн зах зээлийн уналт}}хямрал]]
[[Category:Эдийн засгийн хямрал]]
 
[[Category:Stock market crashes]]
[[Category:Financial crises]]
[[Category:Economic disasters]]
[[Category:1997 in Asia|Financial Crisis]]
 
[[ca:Crisi financera del sud-est asiàtic]]
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